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A real brief, and what happened next

Pinpoint Alpha

Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · Standard edition

As sent

MSFT

$517.53+0.92%

Bullish · Medium conviction

487512537Sep 14, 2026 · Open $497.06 · High $509.95 · Low $495.3416 · Close $505.41Sep 15, 2026 · Open $500.06 · High $505.9 · Low $495.54 · Close $497.12Sep 16, 2026 · Open $493.03 · High $495.97 · Low $487.23 · Close $490.3Sep 17, 2026 · Open $497.795 · High $501.47 · Low $493.17 · Close $497.75Sep 18, 2026 · Open $497.965 · High $498.65 · Low $491.1 · Close $493.78Sep 21, 2026 · Open $494.945 · High $501.87 · Low $491.33 · Close $501.61Sep 22, 2026 · Open $507.32 · High $508.5 · Low $493.65 · Close $498Sep 23, 2026 · Open $500.755 · High $509.44 · Low $495.88 · Close $500.59Sep 24, 2026 · Open $495.07 · High $498.9 · Low $491.22 · Close $497.93Sep 25, 2026 · Open $499.035 · High $519.4 · Low $497.25 · Close $516.17Sep 28, 2026 · Open $505.47 · High $513.33 · Low $502.22 · Close $509.22Sep 29, 2026 · Open $508.31 · High $513.64 · Low $502.4 · Close $508.96Sep 30, 2026 · Open $511.61 · High $519.83 · Low $510.31 · Close $512.9Oct 1, 2026 · Open $519.88 · High $522.85 · Low $512.17 · Close $512.8Oct 2, 2026 · Open $519.385 · High $522.5 · Low $513.66 · Close $517.53Oct 5, 2026 · Open $521.62 · High $532.35 · Low $521.47 · Close $525.18Oct 6, 2026 · Open $531.68 · High $535.69 · Low $528.78 · Close $529.3Oct 7, 2026 · Open $530.725 · High $531.73 · Low $524.69 · Close $529.76Oct 8, 2026 · Open $529.805 · High $533.51 · Low $518.79 · Close $522.61Oct 9, 2026 · Open $528.235 · High $537.22 · Low $526.2401 · Close $535.07535.07Sep 14Oct 2Oct 9
Brief published Daily candles · 2026

What we said

The trend stays firmly bullish, six sessions running, and the fresh high strengthens that case even though the morning gap faded...

ReferenceResistance $520
See the full read

Microsoft hits a fresh high but still can't clear $520

Open $519.39 · Close $517.53 +0.92%

The trend stays firmly bullish, six sessions running, and the fresh high strengthens that case even though the morning gap faded. The $520 ceiling that turned back buyers Wednesday and Thursday held again, and put positioning that sat at $500 has now jumped to $517.50, right under the close. A $165 million block and a $200 million-plus cluster printed late below the day's average price, tempering the gain. None of it breaks the bullish read; $520 still decides whether this becomes a breakout toward the $540 to $555 buildup.

What to watch

A close above $520, where call sellers have repeatedly capped this stock, opens the door toward the $540 to $555 buildup. A close back below $503.39, the estimated hedging pivot, would be the first real crack in the bullish case.

Outcome · 5 sessions later

Closed $535.07 · Oct 9
+3.4%
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Past research

Past analysis, and what happened next.

Every read names a level to watch and what would change our mind. Here is how six of them played out, misses included.

Sent to subscribers Aug 4 to Sep 3, 2026

  • 3worked
  • 1mixed
  • 2didn't work
  1. INTC

    Bullish

    Worked
    85106127Aug 20, 2026 · Open $91.87 · High $92.68 · Low $89.85 · Close $92.13Aug 21, 2026 · Open $92.71 · High $92.768 · Low $89.75 · Close $90.07Aug 24, 2026 · Open $88.86 · High $88.91 · Low $85.14 · Close $87.26Aug 25, 2026 · Open $90.06 · High $90.18 · Low $87.29 · Close $87.48Aug 26, 2026 · Open $86.805 · High $88.2799 · Low $85.63 · Close $88.24Aug 27, 2026 · Open $89.91 · High $92.95 · Low $88.46 · Close $92.09Aug 28, 2026 · Open $90.265 · High $93.7 · Low $89.05 · Close $89.47Aug 31, 2026 · Open $90 · High $91.85 · Low $88.97 · Close $89.51Sep 1, 2026 · Open $86.84 · High $89.41 · Low $85.72 · Close $88.97Sep 2, 2026 · Open $88.85 · High $90.43 · Low $87.5 · Close $90.05Sep 3, 2026 · Open $89.35 · High $92.37 · Low $87.725 · Close $91.67Sep 4, 2026 · Open $92.45 · High $95.94 · Low $91.87 · Close $95.8Sep 8, 2026 · Open $100.8 · High $106.0899 · Low $100.35 · Close $104.47Sep 9, 2026 · Open $102.7 · High $106.69 · Low $102.7 · Close $106.24Sep 10, 2026 · Open $102.45 · High $103.23 · Low $99.34 · Close $100.32Sep 11, 2026 · Open $102.47 · High $104.9 · Low $101.07 · Close $102.94Sep 14, 2026 · Open $95.82 · High $98.86 · Low $94.5233 · Close $97.19Sep 15, 2026 · Open $98.83 · High $100.48 · Low $96.5205 · Close $97.14Sep 16, 2026 · Open $101.365 · High $104.42 · Low $99.29 · Close $101.05Sep 17, 2026 · Open $104.7 · High $111.37 · Low $104.7 · Close $108.8Sep 18, 2026 · Open $109.795 · High $110.49 · Low $106.4 · Close $108.6Sep 21, 2026 · Open $116.53 · High $124.727 · Low $114.93 · Close $121.78Sep 22, 2026 · Open $120.15 · High $124.09 · Low $120.075 · Close $123.86Sep 23, 2026 · Open $123.865 · High $124.25 · Low $119.44 · Close $122.6Sep 24, 2026 · Open $120.61 · High $127.44 · Low $119.55 · Close $127.39Sep 25, 2026 · Open $126.83 · High $126.93 · Low $122.84 · Close $123Sep 28, 2026 · Open $120.675 · High $121.71 · Low $114.705 · Close $116.03Sep 29, 2026 · Open $116.7 · High $118.75 · Low $113.97 · Close $115.93Sep 30, 2026 · Open $116.22 · High $120.55 · Low $115.995 · Close $120.23Oct 1, 2026 · Open $118.73 · High $122.15 · Low $117.35 · Close $120Oct 2, 2026 · Open $124.005 · High $126 · Low $118.96 · Close $119.33119.33Aug 20Sep 3Oct 2
    Brief published Daily candles · 2026

    What we said

    Bullish flow and 80% call-skewed positioning backed INTC's close above $90, with the $95 call wall the next test.

    What happened

    +30.2%$91.67 → $119.3320 sessions later

    Cleared $95 the next day. Peaked at $127.44.

    Full readBack to cardSent Sep 3, 4:55 pm ET

    What happened

    Closed above $95 the next day and never went back below $91.87. Peaked at $127.44 on Sep 24.

    The read, as sent

    INTC cleared $90 with conviction Thursday, but the call wall at $95 is now the test that matters.

    INTC closed cleanly above the $90 structural level the prior two sessions were testing, and the bulls now need to prove this isn't a head-fake. The $95 call wall is the next real test. Signed flow was decisively bullish and institutional positioning (call-to-put ratio 80% call-skewed) reinforces the directional read. But INTC remains 13 sessions below its 21-day moving average and its own trend regime is still firmly bearish, even as the broader market leaned bullish Thursday. This is a deep pullback within a bull macro, not a repaired uptrend.

    Support
    $90 (put wall)
    Resistance
    $95 (call wall)

    Sent to subscribers Sep 3, 2026, written 4:55 pm ET. Quoted as sent. We no longer say who was behind a trade: trade data does not show it.

  2. NKE

    Bearish

    Worked
    353942Aug 10, 2026 · Open $41.7402 · High $42.23 · Low $41.135 · Close $42.11Aug 11, 2026 · Open $41.48 · High $41.53 · Low $40.83 · Close $41.32Aug 12, 2026 · Open $41.03 · High $41.245 · Low $40.45 · Close $40.51Aug 13, 2026 · Open $40.74 · High $41.47 · Low $40.48 · Close $41.23Aug 14, 2026 · Open $41.23 · High $41.33 · Low $40.71 · Close $40.73Aug 17, 2026 · Open $40.35 · High $40.6 · Low $38.86 · Close $39.09Aug 18, 2026 · Open $39.65 · High $40.64 · Low $39.225 · Close $40.06Aug 19, 2026 · Open $40.525 · High $41.305 · Low $40.37 · Close $41.05Aug 20, 2026 · Open $40.49 · High $40.6351 · Low $39.805 · Close $40.21Aug 21, 2026 · Open $40.26 · High $41.125 · Low $40.24 · Close $40.76Aug 24, 2026 · Open $41 · High $41.34 · Low $40.675 · Close $40.75Aug 25, 2026 · Open $39.515 · High $39.865 · Low $39.03 · Close $39.48Aug 26, 2026 · Open $39.4 · High $39.4807 · Low $38.4137 · Close $38.59Aug 27, 2026 · Open $38.5 · High $38.8 · Low $38.17 · Close $38.44Aug 28, 2026 · Open $38.71 · High $39.76 · Low $38.56 · Close $39.6Aug 31, 2026 · Open $39.405 · High $39.88 · Low $39.03 · Close $39.06Sep 1, 2026 · Open $38.36 · High $38.565 · Low $37.97 · Close $38.12Sep 2, 2026 · Open $38.055 · High $38.73 · Low $38.01 · Close $38.24Sep 3, 2026 · Open $38.52 · High $38.93 · Low $37.95 · Close $38.77Sep 4, 2026 · Open $38.22 · High $38.655 · Low $37.98 · Close $38.4Sep 8, 2026 · Open $38.52 · High $38.74 · Low $37.9 · Close $38.1Sep 9, 2026 · Open $37.79 · High $37.85 · Low $36.85 · Close $37.35Sep 10, 2026 · Open $36.96 · High $37.16 · Low $36.55 · Close $36.62Sep 11, 2026 · Open $36.8 · High $37.05 · Low $36.62 · Close $36.8Sep 14, 2026 · Open $36.755 · High $37.41 · Low $36.58 · Close $37.05Sep 15, 2026 · Open $36.85 · High $36.88 · Low $36.17 · Close $36.22Sep 16, 2026 · Open $36.375 · High $36.51 · Low $35.76 · Close $35.78Sep 17, 2026 · Open $36.5 · High $36.8 · Low $35.72 · Close $36.36Sep 18, 2026 · Open $36.27 · High $36.68 · Low $35.5 · Close $35.51Sep 21, 2026 · Open $35.524 · High $36.355 · Low $35.35 · Close $36.1Sep 22, 2026 · Open $36.95 · High $37.035 · Low $35.9401 · Close $36.136.10Aug 10Aug 24Sep 22
    Brief published Daily candles · 2026

    What we said

    A $609K block of September $40 puts printed on NKE's $40 floor as put skew hit an extreme. A close below $40 would open $38.

    What happened

    −11.4%$40.75 → $36.1020 sessions later

    Broke $40 the next day, then hit $38 and $37.

    Full readBack to cardSent Aug 24, 5:02 pm ET

    What happened

    Closed below $40 the next day. Reached $38 on Sep 1 and $37 on Sep 9, and never got back to $40.

    The read, as sent

    A 5,200-contract put block landed squarely on NKE's $40 floor Monday, reinforcing the bear case as skew hits an extreme reading.

    NKE held $40 by a thread on Monday, but the options market is not buying the stability. A block buyer paid $609K for 5,248 September $40 puts, targeting the exact strike that has been reinforced as bearish protection for weeks. Skew is at an extreme reading: put demand relative to calls is at a level rarely seen in NKE's history. The $40 floor is the line; if it gives way with volume, the structure opens toward $38 and then $37.

    If it breaks lower
    Close below $40 with volume expanding = structure opens toward $38 then $37
    If it breaks higher
    Reclaim $42.50 on expanding volume with put OI at $40 unwinding = bear thesis softens
    Wrong if
    Two consecutive closes above $42.50 with declining put OI across September expiry

    Sent to subscribers Aug 24, 2026, written 5:02 pm ET. Quoted as sent. We no longer say who was behind a trade: trade data does not show it.

  3. NOW

    Bearish

    Didn't work
    112131150Aug 3, 2026 · Open $114.51 · High $119.64 · Low $113.7 · Close $114.19Aug 4, 2026 · Open $112.59 · High $118.33 · Low $112 · Close $118.14Aug 5, 2026 · Open $119.9 · High $120 · Low $115.71 · Close $117.22Aug 6, 2026 · Open $113 · High $117.42 · Low $111.8 · Close $117.35Aug 7, 2026 · Open $121.665 · High $126.15 · Low $120.96 · Close $124.88Aug 10, 2026 · Open $124.72 · High $127.89 · Low $123.28 · Close $127.44Aug 11, 2026 · Open $126.26 · High $128.9699 · Low $125.16 · Close $127.54Aug 12, 2026 · Open $123.64 · High $125.64 · Low $121.85 · Close $124.94Aug 13, 2026 · Open $125.595 · High $129.75 · Low $121.65 · Close $127.25Aug 14, 2026 · Open $127.7 · High $128.65 · Low $122.17 · Close $124Aug 17, 2026 · Open $122.43 · High $123.36 · Low $117.585 · Close $117.7Aug 18, 2026 · Open $119.48 · High $121.838 · Low $117.84 · Close $119.49Aug 19, 2026 · Open $118.64 · High $129.6 · Low $118.5113 · Close $127.2Aug 20, 2026 · Open $128.145 · High $131.15 · Low $127.1 · Close $129.75Aug 21, 2026 · Open $130.29 · High $131.18 · Low $127.47 · Close $128.48Aug 24, 2026 · Open $128.055 · High $130.15 · Low $127.59 · Close $128.05Aug 25, 2026 · Open $125.955 · High $129.805 · Low $125.25 · Close $127Aug 26, 2026 · Open $122.33 · High $126.56 · Low $121.88 · Close $125.8Aug 27, 2026 · Open $130.48 · High $139.32 · Low $130.25 · Close $138.43Aug 28, 2026 · Open $138.48 · High $145.72 · Low $137.8 · Close $144.71Aug 31, 2026 · Open $142.08 · High $149.6 · Low $141.69 · Close $147.99Sep 1, 2026 · Open $144.55 · High $146.9599 · Low $142.06 · Close $142.9Sep 2, 2026 · Open $140.3 · High $142.6 · Low $136.375 · Close $136.72Sep 3, 2026 · Open $140.99 · High $146.98 · Low $140.81 · Close $145.59Sep 4, 2026 · Open $143.315 · High $145.2582 · Low $138.8 · Close $141.26Sep 8, 2026 · Open $136.72 · High $136.98 · Low $132.4583 · Close $134.21Sep 9, 2026 · Open $133.58 · High $134.5999 · Low $130.852 · Close $131.11Sep 10, 2026 · Open $130.64 · High $134.7 · Low $130.64 · Close $131.17Sep 11, 2026 · Open $130.5 · High $134.45 · Low $130.39 · Close $132.53Sep 14, 2026 · Open $140 · High $143.1899 · Low $137.24 · Close $142.35Sep 15, 2026 · Open $139.15 · High $147.57 · Low $139 · Close $141.9141.90Aug 3Aug 17Sep 15
    Brief published Daily candles · 2026

    What we said

    NOW fell 5% to just under its $120 call wall as put protection kept building from $110 to $120 and the calls above held.

    What happened

    +20.6%$117.70 → $141.9020 sessions later

    Closed above $120 two days later and kept rising.

    Full readBack to cardSent Aug 17, 4:58 pm ET

    What happened

    Closed at $127.20 two sessions later, above the line that said the read was wrong. Kept climbing to $149.60.

    The read, as sent

    NOW dropped 5% into the call wall, and dual OI positioning leaves the range intact but with growing downside protection.

    NOW gapped down and closed directly below the $120 call wall after a 5% selloff, landing in the $115-$120 zone where the range battle has been playing out all month. The dual OI structure persists: put protection at $110-$120 continues building while call positions at $125-$135 remain intact. The $120 ceiling and $110 floor define the trade until one breaks.

    If it breaks lower
    Break below $115 with expanding put flow = accelerates toward $110
    If it breaks higher
    Reclaim $120 with improving flow = ceiling clears, path reopens to $125
    Wrong if
    Close above $120 with call OI building and put OI reversing

    Sent to subscribers Aug 17, 2026, written 4:58 pm ET. Quoted as sent.

  4. ASTS

    Bearish

    Worked
    566575Aug 4, 2026 · Open $68.5 · High $71.27 · Low $66.87 · Close $70.31Aug 5, 2026 · Open $67.88 · High $70.38 · Low $66.45 · Close $68.38Aug 6, 2026 · Open $65.85 · High $74.08 · Low $65.7 · Close $67.36Aug 7, 2026 · Open $69.07 · High $71.99 · Low $67.7 · Close $71.94Aug 10, 2026 · Open $71.61 · High $73.215 · Low $68.27 · Close $68.76Aug 11, 2026 · Open $69.74 · High $71.91 · Low $67.08 · Close $71.63Aug 12, 2026 · Open $72.65 · High $75.08 · Low $71.35 · Close $74.31Aug 13, 2026 · Open $72.17 · High $75.08 · Low $71.26 · Close $71.52Aug 14, 2026 · Open $71.04 · High $72.99 · Low $68.83 · Close $70.98Aug 17, 2026 · Open $70.62 · High $74.46 · Low $70.5 · Close $71.14Aug 18, 2026 · Open $67.625 · High $68.56 · Low $66.01 · Close $67.07Aug 19, 2026 · Open $66.905 · High $67.2 · Low $64.01 · Close $66.43Aug 20, 2026 · Open $66.05 · High $66.21 · Low $62.89 · Close $65.06Aug 21, 2026 · Open $67.125 · High $70.1 · Low $64.9 · Close $68.65Aug 24, 2026 · Open $66.75 · High $67.12 · Low $62.31 · Close $62.35Aug 25, 2026 · Open $63.28 · High $64.23 · Low $60.9 · Close $62.01Aug 26, 2026 · Open $60.935 · High $62.01 · Low $59.43 · Close $59.88Aug 27, 2026 · Open $60.55 · High $61.63 · Low $59.95 · Close $61.44Aug 28, 2026 · Open $61.05 · High $61.19 · Low $57.554 · Close $58.05Aug 31, 2026 · Open $57.44 · High $59.4 · Low $56.5 · Close $59.1Sep 1, 2026 · Open $57.36 · High $58.4999 · Low $55.7 · Close $55.8Sep 2, 2026 · Open $58.44 · High $63.23 · Low $58 · Close $62.4Sep 3, 2026 · Open $62.91 · High $63.95 · Low $61.07 · Close $62.13Sep 4, 2026 · Open $63.4 · High $65.76 · Low $61.67 · Close $62.31Sep 8, 2026 · Open $63.16 · High $67.2 · Low $63.15 · Close $66.12Sep 9, 2026 · Open $66.57 · High $66.72 · Low $62.42 · Close $62.42Sep 10, 2026 · Open $60.7 · High $64.5285 · Low $59.865 · Close $59.91Sep 11, 2026 · Open $60.49 · High $61.34 · Low $59.2 · Close $59.86Sep 14, 2026 · Open $57.43 · High $61.0899 · Low $57.27 · Close $60Sep 15, 2026 · Open $59.71 · High $60.76 · Low $57.8105 · Close $58.77Sep 16, 2026 · Open $58.89 · High $60.37 · Low $57.47 · Close $59.2759.27Aug 4Aug 18Sep 16
    Brief published Daily candles · 2026

    What we said

    ASTS closed below its 21-day average for the first time in the stretch as put skew hit an extreme. A break of $65 pointed to $60.

    What happened

    −11.6%$67.07 → $59.2720 sessions later

    Rose to $68.65 first, then broke $65 and hit $60.

    Full readBack to cardSent Aug 18, 5:01 pm ET

    What happened

    Rallied to a $68.65 close first, just under that line. Then broke $65 on Aug 24, reached $60 by Aug 26 and bottomed at $55.70.

    The read, as sent

    ASTS gapped down nearly 5% into Friday OpEx and bears are stacking puts at multiple strikes below current price.

    ASTS gapped down hard and closed below the 21-day moving average for the first time in this stretch, flipping its regime to sideways with a bearish lean. The options surface is sending a strong warning: skew reached an extreme level, meaning traders are paying up aggressively for downside protection relative to upside bets. With OpEx arriving in three sessions and over 54% of dealer positioning expiring Friday, the structure could reset sharply after that, but the near-term pressure is clear. The $65 put wall (a price floor from heavy options positioning) is the line that matters most this week.

    If it breaks lower
    Break below $65 put wall = downside accelerates toward $60 where institutional puts are building
    If it breaks higher
    Reclaim $70 call wall with improving flow = bearish thesis loses traction
    Wrong if
    Close back above $69 max pain with put OI unwinding at $60 strikes

    Sent to subscribers Aug 18, 2026, written 5:01 pm ET. Quoted as sent. We no longer say who was behind a trade: trade data does not show it.

  5. HOOD

    Bullish

    Mixed
    91109126Aug 7, 2026 · Open $92.91 · High $95.75 · Low $92.52 · Close $93.29Aug 10, 2026 · Open $93.24 · High $95.95 · Low $92.4 · Close $94.52Aug 11, 2026 · Open $94.965 · High $95.13 · Low $92.75 · Close $94.38Aug 12, 2026 · Open $96.99 · High $97.17 · Low $93.41 · Close $94.91Aug 13, 2026 · Open $96.51 · High $100.3499 · Low $96.41 · Close $99.37Aug 14, 2026 · Open $98 · High $98.4185 · Low $95.44 · Close $95.56Aug 17, 2026 · Open $94.97 · High $96.925 · Low $93.8 · Close $96.25Aug 18, 2026 · Open $93.44 · High $94.59 · Low $91.44 · Close $91.53Aug 19, 2026 · Open $92.9 · High $99.4299 · Low $92.19 · Close $95.77Aug 20, 2026 · Open $100.85 · High $101.61 · Low $93.65 · Close $95.1Aug 21, 2026 · Open $101.1 · High $109.71 · Low $98.77 · Close $108.13Aug 24, 2026 · Open $106.855 · High $109.125 · Low $103.14 · Close $103.62Aug 25, 2026 · Open $103.2 · High $112.45 · Low $102.8 · Close $112.09Aug 26, 2026 · Open $110.105 · High $111.5895 · Low $108.25 · Close $108.54Aug 27, 2026 · Open $110.7 · High $112.07 · Low $107.51 · Close $109.76Aug 28, 2026 · Open $108.655 · High $110.5 · Low $104.15 · Close $104.26Aug 31, 2026 · Open $103.42 · High $105.47 · Low $100.68 · Close $104.81Sep 1, 2026 · Open $105.34 · High $106.96 · Low $102.45 · Close $103.51Sep 2, 2026 · Open $103.72 · High $107.46 · Low $101.89 · Close $106.99Sep 3, 2026 · Open $113.8 · High $124.88 · Low $113.04 · Close $124.72Sep 4, 2026 · Open $120.475 · High $124.7 · Low $119.82 · Close $122.11Sep 8, 2026 · Open $125.07 · High $125.25 · Low $117.08 · Close $117.34Sep 9, 2026 · Open $120.77 · High $121.42 · Low $115.09 · Close $115.28Sep 10, 2026 · Open $112.69 · High $116.3 · Low $111.95 · Close $113.33Sep 11, 2026 · Open $113.35 · High $116.4 · Low $111.02 · Close $112.57Sep 14, 2026 · Open $112.26 · High $116.345 · Low $111.96 · Close $114.33Sep 15, 2026 · Open $111.715 · High $112.85 · Low $105.8593 · Close $110.45Sep 16, 2026 · Open $110.27 · High $111.05 · Low $101.7045 · Close $104.42Sep 17, 2026 · Open $110.1 · High $110.55 · Low $106.08 · Close $109.81Sep 18, 2026 · Open $113.34 · High $120.5699 · Low $111.06 · Close $119.82Sep 21, 2026 · Open $125.045 · High $126.41 · Low $121.505 · Close $123.3123.30Aug 7Aug 21Sep 21
    Brief published Daily candles · 2026

    What we said

    A 13.7% jump left HOOD's $90 to $95 put build far out of the money. A close above the $110 call wall targeted $115 to $120.

    What happened

    +14.0%$108.13 → $123.3020 sessions later

    Fell below $104.65, then rallied to $124.72.

    Full readBack to cardSent Aug 21, 4:59 pm ET

    What happened

    Both happened. Fell below $104.65 on Aug 24, closed above $110 the next day, slid to $100.68 by Aug 31, then jumped to $124.72 on Sep 3.

    The read, as sent

    HOOD exploded 13.7% today, flipping the multi-week bearish thesis: the $110 call wall is now the battlefield.

    HOOD had its biggest single-day gain in months, gapping up at the open and holding most of it into the close. Today's move directly contradicts the multi-week bearish thesis that dominated this name all week: the $90-$95 put structure that had been building for weeks is now far out of the money. The key test is whether HOOD can clear and hold $110. Today is OpEx, and 46.5% of this ticker's GEX expires at today's close, meaning the structural guardrails reset Monday. The $110 call wall becomes the defining line next week.

    If it breaks higher
    Close above $110 on Monday with call flow sustained: next target $115-$120
    If it breaks lower
    Fail to hold $104.65 with flow reverting negative: gap-fill risk back toward $100

    Sent to subscribers Aug 21, 2026, written 4:59 pm ET. Quoted as sent.

  6. TTD

    Bullish

    Didn't work
    131620Jul 21, 2026 · Open $18.32 · High $18.75 · Low $18.1 · Close $18.25Jul 22, 2026 · Open $18.46 · High $18.5 · Low $17.43 · Close $17.58Jul 23, 2026 · Open $17.58 · High $17.6 · Low $16.7 · Close $16.79Jul 24, 2026 · Open $16.96 · High $17.51 · Low $16.86 · Close $17.29Jul 27, 2026 · Open $17.79 · High $18.435 · Low $17.63 · Close $17.88Jul 28, 2026 · Open $18.095 · High $19.06 · Low $18.01 · Close $18.91Jul 29, 2026 · Open $18.67 · High $19.51 · Low $18.54 · Close $19.09Jul 30, 2026 · Open $18.4 · High $18.65 · Low $18.024 · Close $18.28Jul 31, 2026 · Open $18.08 · High $18.2899 · Low $17.71 · Close $18.04Aug 3, 2026 · Open $18.65 · High $18.95 · Low $18.24 · Close $18.3Aug 4, 2026 · Open $17.96 · High $19.37 · Low $17.87 · Close $19.34Aug 5, 2026 · Open $19.52 · High $19.55 · Low $18.71 · Close $18.96Aug 6, 2026 · Open $18.52 · High $18.995 · Low $17.39 · Close $17.67Aug 7, 2026 · Open $12.87 · High $14.57 · Low $12.83 · Close $13.8Aug 10, 2026 · Open $13.475 · High $13.715 · Low $12.83 · Close $13.39Aug 11, 2026 · Open $13.2 · High $13.75 · Low $13.145 · Close $13.56Aug 12, 2026 · Open $13.46 · High $13.695 · Low $13.06 · Close $13.49Aug 13, 2026 · Open $13.725 · High $14.7 · Low $13.57 · Close $14.56Aug 14, 2026 · Open $14.495 · High $14.63 · Low $14 · Close $14.14Aug 17, 2026 · Open $13.787 · High $13.97 · Low $13.3 · Close $13.4Aug 18, 2026 · Open $13.44 · High $13.78 · Low $13.3201 · Close $13.42Aug 19, 2026 · Open $13.4 · High $13.76 · Low $13.22 · Close $13.54Aug 20, 2026 · Open $13.55 · High $13.62 · Low $13.15 · Close $13.32Aug 21, 2026 · Open $13.33 · High $13.37 · Low $13.14 · Close $13.18Aug 24, 2026 · Open $13.16 · High $13.42 · Low $13.15 · Close $13.27Aug 25, 2026 · Open $13.125 · High $13.39 · Low $13.0801 · Close $13.25Aug 26, 2026 · Open $13.14 · High $13.51 · Low $12.97 · Close $13.03Aug 27, 2026 · Open $13.12 · High $13.655 · Low $13.08 · Close $13.42Aug 28, 2026 · Open $13.434 · High $13.81 · Low $13.34 · Close $13.57Aug 31, 2026 · Open $13.97 · High $14.17 · Low $13.495 · Close $13.72Sep 1, 2026 · Open $13.53 · High $13.94 · Low $13.37 · Close $13.7813.78Jul 21Aug 4Sep 1
    Brief published Daily candles · 2026

    What we said

    TTD rose 5.7% to just under its $20 call wall as a $114M off-exchange print, 19th largest in its past decade, hit the close.

    What happened

    −28.7%$19.34 → $13.7820 sessions later

    Fell below $18.50, then dropped 22% on earnings.

    Full readBack to cardSent Aug 4, 5:09 pm ET

    What happened

    Never closed above $20. Closed at $17.67 on Aug 6, then fell 22% the next day on earnings. The read did not mention earnings were two days away.

    The read, as sent

    TTD surged 5.7% today with a $114M dark-pool print at the close, snapping the week-long bearish streak at the $18 battleground.

    After days of independent weakness, TTD finally joined the market rally with a sharp 5.7% surge, closing just below the $20 call wall. The 19th-largest dark-pool print in this ticker's decade-long history landed at the close, a $114M off-exchange order that suggests institutional rebalancing rather than noise. The $20 level is now the decision point: a clean close above it opens real upside; a fade back below $18.50 says today was a relief bounce, nothing more.

    If it breaks higher
    Close above $20 with volume confirming = call wall break, path toward $22-$22.50
    If it breaks lower
    Fade below $18.50 on weak volume = today was a bounce, not a reversal

    Sent to subscribers Aug 4, 2026, written 5:09 pm ET. Quoted as sent. We no longer say who was behind a trade: trade data does not show it.

Each card quotes the brief as it went out that evening. The change is close to close, from the read date to 20 trading sessions later. Selected examples, not a complete record. A price change is not a trading return. A read is research, not a recommendation.

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The backstory

Why I built Pinpoint

I've been active in the markets since 2010, but keeping up with everything alongside a busy career was always a challenge.

In 2025, I started feeding Claude options flow, charts, market commentary, and economic data to help with my daily research. The analysis was often excellent, but I kept wondering: What was I missing?

A handful of screenshots and exports captured only a tiny, noisy slice of the market. Claude could interpret what I gave it, but it couldn't account for everything I hadn't collected.

So I built Pinpoint to ingest market-wide trading activity, filter it through quantitative models, and combine the results with macro data and news before AI interprets the evidence.

Now I get the daily market research I always wanted, without spending hours piecing it together myself.

FAQ

Straight answers
to reasonable questions.

Have another question? Email admin@pinpoint-alpha.com. We usually reply within a few hours.

Pinpoint is built for active swing traders who want to stay on top of the market without spending hours researching every day.

If you typically hold positions for several days, weeks, or months, follow a watchlist of stocks, and pay attention to technical levels, options activity, and broader market conditions, you'll probably find a lot to like.

It's especially useful if you have a day job. You enjoy trading and doing your own research, but you can't spend every afternoon watching scanners, reading X threads, and piecing together conflicting signals.

Who probably won't benefit as much?
  • High-frequency traders who need tick-by-tick data
  • Passive buy-and-hold investors who rarely make trading decisions
  • Anyone looking for a service that simply tells them what to buy

Pinpoint helps you stay informed, recognize opportunities, and manage your trading theses. The decisions are yours.

The daily briefing is where most subscribers start, but there's an entire research platform behind it.

Every weekday evening, Pinpoint delivers a market-wide analysis alongside personalized coverage of up to 15 stocks or ETFs on your watchlist. You get the important developments, directional assessments, key levels, and what changed since previous sessions.

When something deserves a closer look, you have a full suite of research tools:

  • Signal Lab: Explore market conditions, historical trends, options positioning, and the evidence behind our analysis.
  • Flow Radar: Discover noteworthy options activity through curated scanners that prioritize potentially meaningful transactions over raw trade volume.
  • Intraday: Four scheduled market check-ins highlighting developing options activity, market conditions, and 0DTE positioning.
  • Sector Rotation: Follow changes in sector leadership, relative strength, and where market participation is expanding or weakening.
  • Level Map: Explore significant options positioning, open-interest concentrations, and important price levels.
  • Options Monitoring: Track specific options contracts, monitor open interest and unusual activity, and configure supported alerts.
  • Position Tracker: Plan trades, record entries and exits, track targets and stops, and follow your thesis as conditions change.

There's also a Weekly Lookback every Sunday, where we revisit the previous week's calls and evaluate what held up and what didn't.

The daily brief is designed to save you time. The dashboards give you the depth to investigate the things that catch your attention.

You can spend ten minutes with Pinpoint or an entire afternoon. It's up to you.

There are some excellent options scanners on the market. We've used many of them ourselves.

Their strength is giving you access to enormous amounts of trading data, often with hundreds of ways to filter, sort, and explore it.

But that's also what frustrated us.

We found ourselves juggling multiple scanners, charts, X threads, and financial news sources, spending hours trying to determine which signals were meaningful and what they suggested about the broader market.

We wanted the research, not another pile of data to research.

That's the problem we built Pinpoint to solve.

How it works
  1. Ingest market activity.
  2. Filter statistically insignificant transactions.
  3. Compare signals against historical patterns.
  4. Evaluate them alongside price action, options positioning, and broader market conditions.
  5. Turn that evidence into analysis covering the market and the stocks you follow.

We have curated scanners and dashboards too, but we've deliberately prioritized interpretation and context over offering thousands of filters.

If you're looking for a one-to-one replacement for every feature in a professional options terminal, Pinpoint may not be what you need.

If you'd rather open your research platform and find that much of the analytical work has already been done, you're in the right place.

Example

Let's say a stock on your watchlist is approaching a major resistance level.

You notice unusual call volume, but the stock hasn't broken out. Is that meaningful accumulation? Hedging? Speculation? And does the broader market support the move?

Answering those questions usually means jumping between several tools and reviewing activity from previous sessions.

Pinpoint does much of that work automatically.

We analyze options flow, price action, positioning, historical patterns, and market conditions to identify developing setups and explain the evidence behind them.

Each analysis highlights:

  • The directional lean
  • Relevant support and resistance levels
  • The conditions that would strengthen or invalidate the thesis

We also maintain context across sessions.

If a bullish setup starts deteriorating, we want you to know what's changed and why. If an important level holds and supporting evidence strengthens, that deserves attention too.

The goal is to help you spend less time hunting through data and more time evaluating opportunities, managing risk, and making informed trading decisions.

Pinpoint provides trading research and market analysis, rather than personalized buy or sell recommendations.

We examine what happened across the broader market and the stocks you follow, compare that activity with previous sessions, and assess what the available evidence suggests.

That includes directional assessments, emerging setups, changes in options positioning, and key support and resistance levels.

Example

For example, we might identify improving bullish positioning in a stock while explaining that a breakout above $150 would strengthen the case, whereas a close below $142 would invalidate it.

You get the reasoning, the supporting evidence, and the conditions worth watching.

We don't decide whether you should enter that trade, how much capital to commit, or when to exit your position. Those decisions depend on your own strategy, risk tolerance, and circumstances.

Our job is to make sure you have a well-researched picture of the market before making them.

Pinpoint combines traditional quantitative analysis with modern language models, with a deliberate separation between the two.

01Quantitative pipelines

All quantitative calculations happen in code, before AI is involved.

We've built more than 14 specialized Python analysis pipelines that calculate over 60 quantitative signals and metrics. These pipelines process the raw market data, filter transactions, measure options activity, evaluate positioning, identify statistical anomalies, and compare current conditions against historical patterns.

The calculations are deterministic, and we've developed tests and evaluations to verify the pipelines' behavior and outputs.

02AI interpretation

Once that processing is complete, Claude receives the structured findings, relevant historical context, and supporting market data.

Its job is interpretation.

We use carefully designed analytical prompts built around established concepts in technical analysis, market structure, options positioning, and fundamental market analysis. These instructions define how evidence should be evaluated, how conflicting signals should be weighed, and when uncertainty should be acknowledged.

The model doesn't invent trade statistics, calculate our signals, or independently determine the underlying quantitative measurements.

It examines the evidence our pipelines have produced and develops a coherent explanation of what it may mean.

The result combines the consistency of deterministic analysis with the ability to interpret complex, sometimes conflicting market information.

AI interpretations can still be imperfect, which is why we continue testing, evaluating, and refining the analytical process.

We can identify activity consistent with institutional-sized trading and analyze what it may suggest. But market data doesn't always reveal who placed a trade or why.

Example

A large call purchase, for example, isn't automatically a bullish institutional bet. It could be part of a hedge, a spread, or a transaction closing an existing position.

We account for these limitations in our analysis.

Pinpoint examines transaction characteristics, options positioning, open interest, historical activity, price behavior, and other supporting evidence to assess whether something unusual or potentially meaningful is developing.

We also evaluate how signals compare with each stock's own trading history. An unusually large transaction in one stock might be perfectly ordinary in another.

When the evidence supports a bullish or bearish interpretation, we'll explain the reasoning. When it doesn't, we'll say so.

We'd rather give you an honest mixed assessment than manufacture conviction that the data doesn't support.

Understanding what market activity suggests is valuable. Pretending to know every institution's intentions isn't.

Not at all. We specifically designed Pinpoint for people who can't spend the entire trading session glued to a screen.

Our primary analysis runs after the market closes, incorporating the completed session alongside relevant historical context. Paid subscribers receive their evening briefing on weekdays, typically by 6 PM ET.

That means you can finish work, open your inbox, and get caught up on the market and your watchlist in roughly ten minutes.

If you prefer to check in during the day, our Intraday features provide four scheduled updates highlighting developing market conditions and noteworthy options activity.

The dashboards also let you explore historical signals, monitor options contracts, examine sector rotation, and track your positions whenever it's convenient.

Different datasets have different update schedules. For example, options open interest is generally updated daily rather than continuously throughout the session.

Pinpoint isn't designed to replace a real-time execution terminal. It's designed to help you understand what matters without requiring you to watch every trade as it happens.

We track our calls and evaluate what happened afterward, including the ones that didn't work out.

Every Sunday, our Weekly Lookback revisits the previous week's analysis and examines how individual setups and market assessments developed.

We look at whether:

  • Important levels held
  • Anticipated moves materialized
  • The conditions supporting or invalidating a thesis were met

We're also developing and refining systematic evaluations for our quantitative signals, including how they perform across different market conditions and time horizons.

An important distinction

There's an important distinction between evaluating a market call and claiming that a trading strategy is profitable.

A correct directional assessment doesn't necessarily translate into a profitable trade. Entry timing, execution, position sizing, and risk management all matter.

We believe good market research should be accountable to what happens next.

Some assessments will be right. Others won't. Sometimes the most useful conclusion is that the evidence doesn't support a confident directional call.

We want subscribers to understand the reasoning behind our analysis, see how it evolves, and make their own judgments about its usefulness.

Historical results are not guarantees of future performance.

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