Signal Reference

Signal Glossary

Every metric, label, and signal you see in your Pinpoint Alpha digests is derived from real-time institutional flow data. This page explains what each one measures and why it matters for your trading decisions.

01

Core Signals

The primary metrics that appear in every digest. Understanding these gives you 80% of the analytical picture.

FlowScore

0-100

Think of FlowScore as a 'big money activity meter.' It tells you how much institutional attention a stock is getting today. A score of 20 means business as usual. A score of 70 means large players are positioning in ways that stand out from the past month. Higher scores don't tell you direction. They tell you something worth watching is happening.

Technical detail

Five components weighted by empirical predictive value, with IV skew receiving the highest weight based on academic evidence of its persistence. Includes a multi-day persistence modifier and additional adjustments for sweep activity and premium concentration. Capped at 100.

Six activity bands from Quiet through Extreme. IV skew carries the highest weight because research shows it is one of the most persistent predictive signals in options markets.

Market State

A single label that summarizes the current positioning regime for a stock or index. It tells you the character of the market right now: whether moves are being amplified or absorbed, whether institutions are building or exiting, whether the market is coiled for a move or stuck in a range.

Technical detail

Composite classification derived from GEX regime, DFS z-score, VDS z-score, SPR character, dark pool persistence, and OI trends. Six possible states, each representing a distinct institutional positioning regime with different implications for price behavior.

Breakout Fuel

Amplifying

The conditions are set for a sharp move, like a coiled spring. Dealer hedging will amplify the next move rather than absorb it, and institutional players are actively building directional positions. When the move comes, expect it to go further and faster than normal. This doesn't tell you the direction. It tells you the magnitude.

Technical detail

Triggered when directional positioning builds in an amplifying dealer regime with no signs of institutional distribution. The options structure removes the market's natural shock absorber while directional conviction builds.

Pin Risk

Range-bound

The stock is stuck. Dealer hedging is actively pushing price back toward a heavily traded options strike, making breakouts in either direction likely to fail. Good for range-trading strategies, frustrating for momentum traders. The pin usually releases when the options expire.

Technical detail

Triggered when dealer hedging stabilizes around concentrated near-term strikes with low directional flow. Self-reinforcing: dealer hedging at concentrated strikes creates the pin.

Fear Bid

Defensive

Big players are paying up for insurance. They're buying puts, straddles, or other protection, spending real money to hedge against a sharp move. When fear bid persists for multiple days, it often precedes a volatility event. The direction isn't always obvious until the move starts.

Technical detail

Triggered when volatility demand is elevated across multiple contract types, straddle flow is heavy, and IV skew is steep. Institutions are net buyers of volatility.

Accumulation

Quiet buying

Large players are buying, and they're doing it quietly through off-exchange venues where it's harder to detect. This is the quietest bullish signal. It won't show up in price action or volume spikes. When accumulation persists for 3+ days, it often precedes a breakout as buying overwhelms available sellers.

Technical detail

Triggered when persistent dark pool activity runs above VWAP with bullish directional flow and stable or falling put open interest. Off-exchange buying confirmed by directional options flow.

Distribution

Quiet selling

The opposite of accumulation. Large players are selling, often into rallies so the exits don't crash the price. The stock may look fine on the surface while smart money rotates out underneath. Distribution that persists for 3+ days is one of the most reliable bearish signals in our system.

Technical detail

Triggered when: persistent dark pool activity below VWAP, bearish DFS or rising put OI. Institutional selling camouflaged by selling into strength or at VWAP.

Direction Bias

Our single-word read on whether institutional money is flowing into (accumulation) or out of (distribution) a stock today. Derived from the dominant signal across multiple data sources, not just one indicator.

Technical detail

Synthesized from DFS direction, skew shift direction, dark pool VWAP bias, and OI buildup trends. Classified as accumulation, distribution, or neutral.

Key Levels

These aren't arbitrary lines on a chart. They're derived from where billions of dollars of options contracts are concentrated. A put wall at $680 means massive put open interest at that strike, and dealers hedging those contracts will buy when price approaches, creating a floor. A call wall at $700 creates selling pressure. These levels often hold precisely because the hedging flow makes them self-fulfilling.

Technical detail

Sources include: put wall (strike with highest gamma-weighted put OI), call wall (highest gamma-weighted call OI), GEX flip level (where cumulative gamma exposure crosses zero), and max pain (strike minimizing total option holder payout). All levels validated to be within a reasonable range of current price.

02

Options & Flow

The options-derived signals that feed into FlowScore and Market State. These are the building blocks of our analysis.

IV Skew

Skew tells you whether the options market is more worried about a crash or a rally. When skew is positive and rising, big players are paying more for downside protection. They see risk below. When it's negative, they're paying up for upside. They see opportunity above. Skew is the single highest-weighted component of FlowScore because research shows it's one of the most persistent predictive signals.

Technical detail

25-delta put IV minus 25-delta call IV, computed via cubic spline interpolation through the volatility surface at the nearest monthly expiry. Z-scored against rolling history.

GEX Regime

Think of GEX as the market's shock absorber. Positive GEX means the shock absorber is working — dealer hedging cushions price moves. Negative GEX means it's broken — dealer hedging amplifies moves. When GEX flips from positive to negative, expect bigger, faster moves in both directions.

Technical detail

Aggregate gamma exposure across all options strikes. Positive = dealers sell rallies and buy dips (stabilizing). Negative = dealers sell dips and buy rallies (amplifying). GEX flip level found via interpolation at the sign change.

DFS

DFS cuts through the noise of raw options volume to isolate the directional signal. It weights each options contract by how much directional 'punch' it packs. A cheap, leveraged call bet counts for more than a deep-in-the-money stock replacement trade. A DFS z-score of +2.5 means directional flow is more bullish than 99% of the past 60 days.

Technical detail

Weights each options contract by its effective directional leverage, emphasizing contracts where small premium outlays control large directional exposure. Z-scored against 60-day rolling history.

DFS is the most reliable single metric for distinguishing informed institutional flow from hedging or market-making activity.

VDS

VDS tells you whether institutional traders are betting on bigger or smaller moves ahead. Strongly positive for multiple days means the market is saying 'I expect something to happen,' even if the direction isn't clear. VDS turning from negative to positive is often a leading signal before a sharp move.

Technical detail

Measures net volatility buying vs. selling pressure across the options chain. Positive = net vol buying, negative = net vol selling. Z-scored against rolling history. Cross-referenced with IV movement to distinguish demand that is being absorbed from demand that is driving price.

Sweep Activity

When an institution needs to get a large options trade done immediately, they 'sweep' across multiple exchanges at once, prioritizing speed over price. This is the most urgent type of order. Multiple golden sweeps (over $1M each) in the same direction on the same day is rare and one of the highest-conviction signals in our system.

Technical detail

Intermarket sweep orders detected by identifying coordinated executions across multiple exchanges within tight time windows. Golden sweeps exceed $1M in premium. Sweep count and total sweep premium feed into FlowScore as rarity modifiers.

OI Buildup

When someone builds a large options position over multiple days at a specific strike, they're making a deliberate bet, not a quick in-and-out trade. OI buildup at the $950 call strike over 5 days means someone is positioning for (or hedging against) a move above $950. These multi-day signals are among the most reliable indicators of institutional intent because they cost real money to maintain.

Technical detail

Multi-day lookback comparing current open interest to stored snapshots. Three signal types: buildup (significant growth), new position (fresh entry), and unwind (significant decline). Scored on a multi-factor composite including growth rate, absolute position size, dollar significance, time to expiry, volume confirmation, and proximity to current price. Filtered to the swing-trading time horizon.

IV Rank

Is volatility cheap or expensive right now? An IV Rank of 90 means options are near their most expensive in a year. Historically rare territory. An IV Rank of 10 means they're near their cheapest. Useful for deciding whether options are worth buying (low IV) or whether premium sellers have an edge (high IV).

Technical detail

Measures where current implied volatility sits within its trailing 12-month range. 90 = near the top, 10 = near the bottom. Smoothed to avoid noise during the first months of data collection.

IV Term Structure

Normally, options that expire further out cost more than near-term ones (contango). When this inverts and near-term options become more expensive (backwardation), the market is saying 'I'm worried about something happening soon.' Sustained backwardation is one of the clearest fear signals in options markets.

Technical detail

Front-month ATM IV minus back-month ATM IV at the nearest two monthly expiries. Contango = normal (back > front). Backwardation = near-term fear elevated (front > back). Slope tracked as a rolling series, and flip events (contango-to-backwardation transitions) are flagged explicitly.

P/C Ratio

A simple gauge of sentiment through options trading. Above 1.0 means more put contracts traded (bearish or hedging). Below 1.0 means more calls (bullish). Most useful when compared to the 20-day average. A P/C ratio 30% above normal tells you today's put buying is unusually heavy.

Technical detail

Put volume divided by call volume, filtered to relevant contract expirations. Compared against a rolling average to surface meaningful deviations. Also computed on an open interest basis for a longer-term positioning view.

03

Market Structure

Off-exchange activity and equity trade analysis that reveal what institutions are doing beneath the surface.

Dark Pool Activity

Dark pools are where large institutions trade to avoid moving the market. We track whether this off-exchange activity is elevated, whether it's buying or selling (via VWAP bias), and whether it's sustained. A single day of elevated dark pool activity is noise. Three consecutive days with consistent buying bias is the strongest accumulation signal available in public market data.

Technical detail

Off-exchange (FINRA TRF) trading analysis. Tracks dark pool share of total volume, VWAP bias (whether off-exchange trades concentrate above or below the day's average price), multi-day persistence relative to recent history, and block-sized prints as a fraction of total off-exchange activity.

VWAP Bias

Were dark pool trades executed above or below the day's average price? Above VWAP means institutions were buying at prices higher than average, willing to pay up, which signals demand. Below VWAP means selling into the market, willing to accept lower prices, signaling urgency to exit.

Technical detail

Computed from dollar-weighted direction of all dark pool trades relative to the daily VWAP. Classified as above, below, or neutral based on signal strength. Most informative when persistent across multiple consecutive sessions.

Trade Percentile

How historically unusual were today's biggest trades? If the largest trade of the day ranks in the 99th percentile versus the past 30 days, someone made an unusually large bet. This feeds into FlowScore's trade rarity component.

Technical detail

Percentile rank of the day's largest trade (by dollar value) against the trailing distribution of all trade sizes. Statistically unusual prints are flagged and feed into FlowScore's trade rarity component.

04

Supporting Metrics

Cross-asset context and supplementary signals that add depth to the core analysis.

Cross-Asset Regime

Stocks don't trade in isolation. When credit markets, bonds, gold, and crypto all tell the same story, that context matters. We monitor these relationships daily and flag when they diverge from what equities are pricing. Those divergences often resolve by equities catching up to what other markets already priced in.

Technical detail

Multi-asset divergence analysis across credit spreads, Treasury yields and curve shape, commodities, crypto, and the US dollar index. Each asset class produces a regime signal; the composite classifies the overall risk environment and flags divergences from what equities are pricing.

Insider Purchases

When a CEO, CFO, or board member buys stock on the open market with their own money, they're making a bet with personal skin in the game. Academic research consistently shows insider purchases (not sales) have predictive value over 30-90 day horizons. We use these as confirmation signals. An insider buying during an accumulation regime is a powerful convergence.

Technical detail

SEC Form 4 filings filtered to open market purchases only. Novelty-flagged when it's the insider's first purchase in several months. Notably sized purchases receive additional emphasis.

Volume vs 20d

How heavy is today's trading compared to normal? A ratio of 1.5x means 50% above the 20-day average. Volume validates price moves. A 2% rally on light volume is less meaningful than a 1% move on 2.5x volume. This feeds directly into FlowScore's volume intensity component.

Technical detail

Today's total equity volume divided by the 20-day simple moving average. Contribution to FlowScore is adjusted on dates that generate mechanical volume (options expiration, rebalancing) to avoid false signals.

Short Volume Ratio

What percentage of today's trading volume was short sales? Tracked daily from FINRA RegSHO data. Persistently elevated short volume, especially when combined with distribution state and rising put OI, adds conviction to a bearish institutional read.

Technical detail

FINRA RegSHO short volume as a proportion of total consolidated volume. Tracked as rolling history for trend detection. Contextualized relative to recent history to identify meaningful deviations.

See these signals in action

Every trading day after market close, Pinpoint Alpha delivers institutional flow analysis for your watchlist: the signals described above, synthesized into a 5-minute read with specific levels and conditional setups.

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Pinpoint Alpha is an analytical newsletter, not a financial advisor. Signal definitions describe our analytical methodology, not investment recommendations. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results.