The Pinpoint Conviction Score is a trend-following framework. By design, it is slow at absolute tops and bottoms. It will keep you in sustained trends and get you out before sustained drawdowns — typically at −4% to −7% off the top, well before a −10%+ decline does real damage.
It will not call turns two days early. No framework reliably does. Below are the eight questions we get asked most often.
The Pinpoint Conviction Score is a four-component framework that produces a single signed number from -100 to +100 every trading day, alongside one of eight regime labels (Strong Bull Regime, Healthy Bull, Bulls Firmly In Charge, Sideways No-Trend, and their bearish mirrors).
The four pillars:
The four pillars combine into a single signed score and a regime label, anchored by 30+ years of validated trend-following research (Faber's 10-month moving-average rule, Weinstein's Stage Analysis, Bollinger band statistics, Detrick's streak data).
Important: it is a regime read, not a buy/sell signal, and not a turn predictor. By design it's slow at absolute tops and bottoms and decisive once a trend is established.
For the full methodology — the four components diagrammed, the backtest table, and the research lineage — read Our Method.
The Our Method page covers the four-component anatomy of the score, the 10-year SPY backtest results, and the research lineage from Faber, Weinstein, and the CBOE that informs every threshold.
Pinpoint Alpha is an analytical newsletter, not a financial advisor. The Conviction Score is a regime read, not a buy or sell recommendation. Past framework readings do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
