The Pinpoint Conviction Score is a trend-following framework. By design, it is slow at absolute tops and bottoms. It stays with sustained trends and turns once a decline is under way: across 11 SPY declines of 10% or more since 2000, it turned bearish a median 9 sessions and 3.0% below the peak.
It will not call turns two days early. No framework reliably does. Below are the questions we get asked most often.
The Pinpoint Conviction Score is a four-component framework that produces a single signed number from -100 to +100 every trading day, alongside one of seven trend labels (Strong Bull, Bull, Bull Lean, Sideways, and their bearish mirrors).
The four pillars:
The four pillars combine into a single signed score and a regime label, anchored by 30+ years of validated trend-following research (Faber's 10-month moving-average rule, Weinstein's Stage Analysis, Bollinger band statistics, Detrick's streak data).
Important: it is a regime read, not a buy/sell signal, and not a turn predictor. By design it's slow at absolute tops and bottoms and decisive once a trend is established.
For the full methodology — the four components diagrammed, the backtest table, and the research lineage — read Our Method.
The Our Method page covers the four-component anatomy of the score, the 10-year SPY backtest results, and the research lineage from Faber, Weinstein, and the CBOE that informs every threshold.
Pinpoint Alpha is an analytical newsletter, not a financial advisor. The Conviction Score is a regime read, not a buy or sell recommendation. Past framework readings do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
