Big money made unusually large bullish bets on the S&P, but fewer traders showed up to participate.
Institutions executed $109.3M of inverse exposure on SPY as it declined 1.4% over the past two weeks — outsized print regardless of trend.
What · we score the trend on four components every trading day.
Maturity · how long has the trend held.
Stretch · how far is price from its 21-day average.
Slope · is the average itself rising or falling.
Stack · do multiple timeframes agree.
Output · the four pillars combine into a single Conviction Score (−100 to +100) and a regime label.
Not· not a turn predictor (slow at absolute tops/bottoms), not a buy/sell signal (it's a regime read), and not infallible.
Is · a committed daily read on which side has edge, designed to keep you long in trends and out of sustained drawdowns, built on 30+ years of trend-following research (Faber, Weinstein, CBOE).
More · read the full methodology.
Strong signal · day 30 of this multi-week read
Among the longest stretches on record (typical run lasts 5 days).
Hover any day to see the reading and any caution flags that fired.
Elevated flags have either persisted for several sessions or stacked with others. Multiple elevated flags historically raise reversal odds — they don't guarantee one.
What · two scores (0 to 100) on the same six factor blocks, smoothed differently.
Pulse · fast read (1 to 3 day). Designed to react to stress within 1 to 2 sessions and stay sticky on greed.
Tide · slow read (10 to 15 day). Structural backdrop; requires multi-day confirmation to change band.
Bands· each score lands in one of five bands. Watch the day counter for how long a band has held, and the cooling or intensifying tag for which way it's moving inside the band.
Divergence Alert · fires when two or more factor blocks disagree (e.g. credit not confirming a rally). Empirically rare and worth attention, but a watch signal, not a sell signal.
Not· not a buy/sell signal (it's a sentiment read), not infallible (hit rates will be published after T+60 days), not CNN's Fear and Greed (built on richer inputs).
Is· a daily composite of credit, vol/dealer, flow, breadth, cross-asset, and curve. Smoothed with asymmetric EMAs so it flips fast on stress and slow on greed. Dealer-aware (GEX, 25Δ skew), which is what CNN's index misses.
All three indices rose on quiet volume. Big money made unusually large bullish bets on the S&P, but fewer traders showed up to participate.
Markets climbed again today. SPY rose 0.55% to $754.60, QQQ gained 0.84% to $735.60, and IWM added 0.57% to $292.03. The rally is real, and bulls are firmly in charge for a fifth straight week.
Big institutions placed unusually aggressive bullish bets on the S&P today, roughly 3x the normal level of bullish activity. But here's the thing: volume was about 28% below normal. That's the sixth straight day where prices went up on light participation. The move higher is genuine, but the lack of volume is a caution sign. It doesn't change the direction; it just means a pullback toward the $735 area on SPY (its 21-day average) is increasingly likely and would be a healthy reset, not a breakdown.
Software stocks surged nearly 3% today, led by IGV, but that's a bounce inside a longer downtrend, not a turnaround. DELL, Costco, and MongoDB report earnings tonight, which could move tech and retail tomorrow. Month-end rebalancing flows will also add noise to tomorrow's close.
Bottom line: Bulls are in charge. Above $750 on SPY, the rally can extend toward $760. If SPY drops below $735 and stays there for two days, the bullish read is in trouble.